On the evening of 23 May, the former Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of the World Bank, Professor at Peking University, Justin Lin Yifu said in a speech at Xiamen University that in case China fully utilizes the potential of economic development, and maintains an average growth of 8% that it has kept for 20 years, seven years later in 2020, China’s per capita income is expected to reach $ 12,500, and China is then a high-income country.
He said that for a developing country, in order to understand its possibility of rapid development, one must look at the post-mover advantage and how possible the country can make use of the post-mover advantage.
Lin said that the so-called post-mover advantage refers to the gap between developing countries and the developed countries; the greater the income gap, the greater the post-mover advantage will be. He referred to data of 2008 that China’s per capita income in 2008 was about 21% of the United States, which was similar to Japan in 1951, Singapore in 1967 and South Korea in 1977 in term of level of income disparity with United States.
Lin stressed that China achieves an average annual growth of 8% in the next two decades is based on the premise that impacts left by the “two-track reform” can be eliminated and the planned economy could be fully transited into a free market economy.